March 2, 2009

Markets week , Did you Short ?

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In the last post , I had discussed the trading opportunity of Reliance-RPL merger news. But market direction was negative and one should always expect the unexpected rule , People who jumped into market and traded must have burnt there fingers , because after 15 min of market opening , the trend for market overall and Reliance and RPL was down and they were moving lower .

Today was an important day , as markets were near support point of 2680 and in the last hour of trade , it went below it and finally closed below the support level , which brings further weakness in market .




If you see this 5 day , 30 min charts , Markets have closed below the support levels of 2680. This does not look very good for Bulls now .

US markets are at 11 years low , I have taken a short position through PUTs and also hedged them using a CALL position . If markets go down as expected , i will make some profits , If they bounce back which is very unlikely now , then i will make small losses .

Markets must fall heavily now once it breaches 2500 levels . As I write this US markets have breached the 11 yrs low of 7000 on the news of $61.8 billion quarterly losses by AIG .

If markets open higher on Tuesday , I would like to get out of my call position and then hold the PUTS . If markets open lower , then i would like to wait for small bounce and then get out of my CALLS .

Wait for 10-15 min after markets open for getting true idea of where markets are going .

Manish

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